Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs US Flows & Themes Ahead of The Fed
EQUITY, VOL & MACRO DESK BRIEFING: US FLOWS & THEMES
Author: Giulio Esposito (Goldman Sachs Managing Director, FICC & Equities) | Date: September 14, 2026
THE TAKE: MARKET SNAPS WINNING STREAK AS RATES & OIL SHOCK TAPE
US equity benchmarks snapped a 2-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 down -80 bps and Nasdaq-100 down -66 bps. Small-caps suffered the heaviest liquidations, with the Russell 2000 falling -2.41% as interest rates surged across the yield curve (2-Year yield >4.55%, 10-Year yield >4.95%).
Equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed cap-weighted S&P 500 by ~109 bps, reflecting heavy concentration in Communication Services (+1.0%) and Tech (-0.20%). The primary sell-side catalyst was a combination of a hotter-than-expected August CPI print and a +9.4% surge in WTI crude back above $100/bbl (US diesel >$6/gal) as geopolitical risk premia and secondary sanction threats on Iran's trading partners escalated.
SPECIAL INTEGRATION: FOMC FORECAST CHANGE & HIKING CYCLE DYNAMICS
GS Research Forecast Update: GS Economics (David Mericle) officially added a 25 bps rate hike to the forecast for Wednesday’s September FOMC meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
"Forced Hike" Framing: GS notes there is little fundamental economic rationale for a hike—as CPI overshoots reflect temporary tariffs and energy shocks—but market pricing (~90%) forces the Fed's hand to prevent severe market dislocation.
Terminal Rate & 2027 Path: GS expects the Fed to frame this as a "one-and-done" adjustment for 2026, followed by two 25 bps cuts in 2027 (September and December), bringing the terminal rate forecast to 3.25%–3.50%.
Equity Impact vs. Historical Precedent: While the S&P 500 has historically averaged -2% over 3 months following the first hike of a cycle, it averages +9% over the subsequent 12 months. Because rates markets already price >3 hikes by mid-2027, the bar for a hawkish surprise is exceptionally high.
PRIME BROKERAGE (PB) & INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING
Massive TMT Long Accumulation:
Global TMT (Info Tech + Comm Services) was the most net bought sector globally, recording its largest dollar net buying in 7 months (driven almost entirely by long buys).
Gross TMT Allocation: 28.9% (70th percentile 1-year / 94th percentile 5-year).
Net TMT Allocation: 35.0% (74th percentile 1-year / 95th percentile 5-year).
Hedge Fund Leverage & Flows:
Fundamental L/S performance rose +0.27% (alpha +1.28%), while Systematic L/S rose +0.93%.
Overall Prime Book Gross leverage rose +0.6 pts to 304.6% (49th percentile 1-year), while Net leverage rose +0.5 pts to 76.9% (26th percentile 1-year).
Macro Products saw the largest net selling in 4 months, driven entirely by short additions.
Sentiment Indicator: GS Sentiment Indicator fell to -0.5 SD, back in negative territory and printing its lowest level since Q1—providing a potential contrarian tailwind for equities.
SINGLE STOCK CATALYST MATRIX
Ticker | Session Performance | Key Catalyst / Fundamental Driver | Desk Take / Perspective |
ORCL | -5.4% | Accelerating OCI growth, strong bookings, steady capex guidance | Pullback provides entry point; AI cloud contracts strong |
ADBE | -5.4% | NNARR missed expectations despite topline beat | AI monetization lagging core user growth metrics |
AAPL | +3.8% | Unveiled foldable iPhone at annual product event | Product launch met broad institutional expectations |
QCOM | +7.8% | Announced AI data center infrastructure deal with AMZN (-0.7%) | Strong outperformance on custom AI silicon expansion |
NVDA | -5.2% | DOJ investigation into Groq licensing deal structure | Antitrust overhang creating short-term factor friction |
BSX | -10.1% | Cybersecurity incident impacting Q3/FY26 targets | Heavy operational disruption drag |
CHWY | -13.6% | Active customer count missed despite Q2 earnings beat | Consumer engagement metrics lagging financial beat |
TSM | +1.0% | August revenue surged +53% YoY | Hardware/foundry demand metrics remain robust |
WEEK AHEAD MACRO & CAPITAL MARKETS CALENDAR
Wednesday Macro: FOMC Rate Decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs), Press Conference; August Retail Sales (GS: +0.6% MoM); Import Price Index.
Central Bank Calendar: UK Labor (Tue), UK CPI & BoE (Wed/Thu), BoJ Policy Decision (Fri).
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!